The start of the new league year will soon be full of shiny new team additions, bringing some hope and excitement to fan bases similar to what the NFL draft will bring next month. But these additions will be far riskier than draft additions, simply due to their cost. Unlike cost-controlled draft picks, these players have reached the cherished status of free agency, with the leverage of multiple bidders and the riches that come with that.
Having been in the Green Bay Packers’ front office for almost a decade, it will come as no surprise that I am not a big fan of NFL free agency. Sure, there are success stories, (Charles Woodson is an example), but those are the exceptions rather than the rules. As someone who practiced the strategy of extending core players long before they hit the market, I always asked this question of free agents: And as we have seen with pending free agents such as Chris Jones, Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield (and the franchise tag players who signed, although they had no other options), teams are loath to let players they truly value hit the market.
More so than any other major sport, football is a schematic game. There may be “good” players that move from one system to another and the skills do not translate. The cautionary tales are plentiful.
Despite the record level increase in the cap this offseason—a 13.4% increase to $255 million per team—my sense is that the free agent signing period will be no different than it is every year. There will be, as always, a handful of golden ticket winners, followed quickly be a second wave of more modest contracts; followed by a game of musical chairs for players to get their contracts before the good ones all run out; followed by a waiting game for older veterans trying to hook on with teams before, or even during, training camp.
