Where will the final of T20 World Cup 2024 be won and lost?
Nagraj Gollapudi, S Rajesh and Shiva Jayaraman28-Jun-20242:10
How do South Africa tackle Kuldeep and Bumrah?
Toss factor: Bat first?In the four day matches played at Kensington Oval so far in this tournament, the team winning the toss has twice elected to bat first. While Namibia lost against Scotland, India beat Afghanistan comfortably by 47 runs. England elected to bowl in the other two matches, losing to Australia and defeating USA.Overall in this tournament, India have batted first in five of their seven matches, and on four of those occasions their opponents sent them in, including Thursday’s semi-final in Guyana where England were bowled out for 103 in pursuit of 172.Related
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South Africa, meanwhile, have won the toss three times and elected to bowl twice. Overall, they have batted first on four occasions, and chased as many times, winning all their games so far.Bowling is a strong suit for both teams, and both India and South Africa may prefer bowling second in the final, when the pressure will be higher. Since this is a day game, there will be no dew to advantage the chasing team.ESPNcricinfo LtdPace-off against SKYSuryakumar Yadav scores a high proportion of his runs in the zone stretching from backward point to backward square leg. He loves using any pace and bounce on offer to direct the ball behind the wicket, and South Africa’s fast bowlers know this. The zones behind the wicket have brought Suryakumar 66 runs off 24 balls against Kagiso Rabada in all T20s, 32 off 12 against Nortje, and 25 off just five balls against Jansen. Suryakumar has a phenomenal overall strike rate of 298 against the South African trio when he plays them in those zones.ESPNcricinfo LtdThere is, though, a way for fast bowlers to try and prevent him from accessing these areas: take the pace off. Especially in the IPL over the last few years, there has been a noticeable rise in bowlers deploying the slower ball against Suryakumar. He scores quickly against the slower ball too, going at a strike rate of 180.40 against the 148 slower balls he has faced in T20s since the start of 2023, but the revealing number is the average: it drops from 42.30 against on-pace deliveries to 20.53 against slower balls. And from once every 23 balls against on-pace deliveries, his dismissal rate climbs to once every 11.4 balls against slower balls.ESPNcricinfo LtdBowl Maharaj in the powerplayAfter losing the semi-final in Guyana, Jos Buttler conceded that he could have bowled Moeen Ali in the first six overs to create pressure on Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli. Jansen and Rabada have usually started with the new ball for South Africa in this World Cup, but India’s openers enjoy facing pace first up and like to go hard against the fast men. While Rabada has dismissed Kohli and Rohit four times each in T20s, and the sample size is too small for Jansen, South Africa could look at going defensive by introducing Keshav Maharaj’s left-arm spin in the powerplay. Since January 2023, Maharaj has gone for 143 runs in 114 powerplay deliveries, with an economy of 7.52, and picked up six wickets in this phase. Traditionally, both Rohit and Kohli have tended to score slowly against left-arm spin.ESPNcricinfo LtdThe key battles – Klaasen vs Jadeja, Kuldeep vs MillerHeinrich Klaasen and David Miller are the best players of spin in the South Africa line-up. But can they withstand the collective pressure that the Indian spin trio of Axar Patel, Kuldeep Yadav and Ravindra Jadeja could build from both ends? Both batters have strong numbers against Axar, but have faced issues against the other two.ESPNcricinfo LtdKlaasen’s modus operandi relies on standing deep in the crease and using his bat swing to launch big hits, while also being able to manoeuvre the ball into gaps and run hard. By his own admission, it is when he is in two minds whether to attack or play safe that he self-destructs. And he has found himself in such a scenario against Jadeja. In their T20 meetings so far, Klaasen has managed just 16 runs off 15 balls against Jadeja.Miller, too, has been circumspect against Kuldeep. Since January 2022, Miller has scored at a run a ball off 24 balls from India’s best spinner in the format, while being dismissed twice. There is no doubt India will try and exploit these match-ups; how will Klaasen and Miller respond?ESPNcricinfo LtdSamson for Dube?In a curious move in the semi-final against England, India pushed Shivam Dube down the order, having mostly used him at No. 5 over the course of the tournament. Dube was included in India’s squad as a spin-disruptor, and although he has scored 47 off 38 balls against spin in this tournament, he has been dismissed twice by that style of bowling, and has been circumspect against pace, picking up just 59 off 62 balls. While it seems highly unlikely India will drop him for the final, they could replace him with Sanju Samson, who has occupied the bench since playing the warm-up match against Bangladesh.Shamsi or Baartman?Tabraiz Shamsi has 11 wickets at this World Cup, with one four-wicket haul and two three-fors, including 3 for 6 in the semi-final against Afghanistan. Shamsi has decent head-to-head against most of India’s batters in the last two years, too, and won the Player-of-the-Match award in the second match of the home T20 series last December in Gqeberha, where he picked up 1 for 18 in four overs. However, do South Africa need a second spinner at a venue where fast bowlers have taken 32 wickets as against 20 by spinners?The alternative could be Ottneil Baartman. The right-arm fast man nearly let England back into South Africa’s last Super Eight match with a 21-run 17th over, erring while repeatedly looking for yorkers rather than bang away on a hard length. But the yorker is a big weapon for Baartman at the death, and he has executed it well in South African domestic cricket. He has also been among the most economical bowlers in the country, capable of operating in all three phases. It is a good headache for Rob Walters, South Africa’s head coach-cum-selector and captain Aiden Markarm: rely on Shamsi’s experience and guile or inject the pace of Baartman?
