Tyrese Haliburton and the Indiana Pacers shocked the basketball world in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, erasing yet another big deficit to win in the final seconds and take a 1-0 series lead over the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Thunder opened the NBA Finals as -700 favorites, but they have fallen to -300 favorites ahead of Game 2 in OKC. Oddsmakers have the Thunder favored by 11 in Sunday’s matchup, but can we really trust them to cover the spread against this scrappy Pacers team?
Indiana turned the ball over 25 times in Game 1, but it still found a way to win behind Haliburton’s game-winning jumper. The Pacers are now 7-2 straight up on the road, and they’ve won Games 1 and 2 on the road in two series already this postseason.
Will they do it again on Sunday?
Game 1 of the NBA Finals was a profitable one, as we not only hit a Tyrese Haliburton prop, but the Thunder covered the spread in the first quarter – despite losing the game – to give us a 2-for-2 night.
Here’s how I’m betting on Game 2 on Sunday.
NBA Best Bets Record to Date2024-25 season record: 277-281-5 (-7.55 units)OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1287-1225-26 (+30.54 units)
NBA Best Bets Today
Indiana Pacers +11 (-112) vs. Oklahoma City ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-160)Indiana Pacers +11 (-112) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder have been elite as home favorites in the 2024-25 season, but I’m having a hard time buying them at this price against a Pacers team that has thrived on the road all season long.
Indiana is 7-2 straight up on the road in the playoffs and 19-11 against the spread as a road underdog in the 2024-25 season. The Pacers have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games, easily doing so in Game 1 of this series.
While I do think that the Thunder will shoot better in Game 2, the Pacers also aren’t going to turn the ball over 25 times. This is an Indiana team that is one of the best in the league at limiting turnovers, and it showed in the second half of Game 1 (six turnovers) that it can take care of the ball against this elite OKC defense.
Plus, the Pacers dominated the glass in Game 1 with Isaiah Hartenstein moving to the bench for OKC. Does Mark Daigneault go back to his original starting lineup?
There’s a lot more questions for OKC after playing a pretty decent game and still losing at home. The Pacers have to feel like they can play better, and they’ve shown all postseason long that they’re undervalued in the betting market.
I think Indiana can keep this game within double digits, even if OKC ends up winning easily in Game 2.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-160)
This postseason, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is shooting just 31.4 percent from beyond the arc, but he’s knocked down at least two shots from deep in nine of his playoff games, including each of his last four.
In game 1, SGA attempted six shots from deep, hitting three of them.
While the Thunder don’t rely heavily on the league MVP shooting the ball from beyond the arc, he’s still attempting 5.1 shots per game from deep in the playoffs.
Given that volume, I think Gilgeous-Alexander is worth a look in Game 2 with a ton on the line for OKC. I expect SGA to come out aggressive as a scorer, and he did step into a few 3-pointers in transition in Game 1. If the attempts for the star guard are hovering around the five-to-seven range, he’s a great bet to hit two of them on Sunday.
