Mike Palm, the vice president of operations at the Circa, didn’t do much counting the past two weeks regarding remaining survivor pool entries because the favorites have won most NFL games.
More than 14,200 entries were entered for the Circa’s popular survivor contest, but that number dwindled to 221 through five weeks of the NFL season. With the favorites dominating lately, that number only went down to 214 entries heading into Week 8.
“It’s been a period of tranquility,” Palm says about the survivor contest with a $14.2 million payout for the winner or winners.
Last year, four people split $9.2 million after finishing with a 20–0 record. The Circa has separate weeks for the Thanksgiving and Christmas Day schedules. Many of the contestants who remain alive in the survivor pool haven’t used the Kansas City Chiefs because Palm said many are waiting to use the Chiefs for when they play the Las Vegas Raiders at home on Nov. 29—the Black Friday game counts for the Thanksgiving schedule.
Palm isn’t expecting to see the Chiefs used often this week for their first matchup against the Raiders, one of many games in Week 8 with lopsided spreads. The Chiefs are -10 favorites in Las Vegas, but the Detroit Lions are currently laying the most points this week as -11 home favorites against the one-win Tennessee Titans. The Denver Broncos are -9.5 home favorites against the struggling Carolina Panthers, and the Baltimore Ravens are -8.5 road favorites vs. the reeling Cleveland Browns.
“From a survivor pool perspective, I think the Broncos will be the most popular pick because there aren’t other opportunities where people would have played the Broncos already,” Palm says. “Carolina continues to look worse by the week. I don’t know how they got worse from last year. … Marcus Mariota went up and down the field on the Panthers’ defense after Jayden Daniels got hurt.”
From a survivor pool standpoint, the Broncos make plenty of sense, but they’re a risky pick against the spread as a team that tends to struggle with producing touchdowns. Then again, Denver dropped 33 points against the New Orleans Saints last week and recorded 34 points vs. Las Vegas in Week 5.
The Chiefs have also struggled to score points this season, despite being the lone undefeated team in the league with a 6–0 record. But don’t overlook the Chiefs’ rivalry with the Raiders. They might not have any issues running up the score against the team that did plenty of trash-talking after beating them at Arrowhead Stadium on Christmas Day last year. Perhaps this is the game Patrick Mahomes breaks out of his funk.
Many will be enticed to take the Lions and the 11 points vs. the Titans, but Palm said he has concerns about Detroit letting off the gas a bit after a slugfest against the Minnesota Vikings last week and another showdown looming next week vs. the Green Bay Packers. But the Titans allowed the Bills to cover as -9.5 favorites last week.
As for games with smaller spreads, Palm mentioned that the Washington Commanders as +3 home underdogs vs. the Chicago Bears could be enticing to many sharp bettors, even with the possibility of Daniels not playing due to a rib injury. If Daniels plays, Commanders’ supporters would be in a good spot with the extra points.
“We’re up to three on the Bears [at the Circa sportsbook], so the line is telling you Jayden Daniels is not going to play,” Palm says. “However, if there’s any chance that he’s going to play, you could get three points right now. You’re way ahead of it if he plays. If he doesn’t you still got a pretty good Washington team with a veteran quarterback in Marcus Mariota. I think there are some reasons to take a hard look at the Commanders this week.”
To the public bettors, the 5–1 Minnesota Vikings only being -3 favorites against the 2–4 Los Angeles Rams could be appealing, especially with the Rams having trade rumors about Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford. But bettors shouldn’t overlook the grind of playing on the road during a short week. Also, the Vikings had a tough, emotional loss against the Lions last week.
“Most of the sharp people have taken three with the Rams, taking the points, or waiting to see if more Minnesota money will come in before kickoff to see if they can get a -3.5,” Palm says. “This is more of a public vs. pro game, where the public looks at the Vikings, 5–1, barely losing the one game. And the Rams even struggled to beat the Raiders, there are rumors out there about trades. The public is on the Vikings and the pros on the Rams.”
Manzano’s NFL Week 8 Betting Tips
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Buck the Trend: Cowboys (+4) at 49ers
The Dallas Cowboys haven’t been very good this season, but the same can be said about the injury-riddled San Francisco 49ers. The Cowboys could make this game interesting because they’re coming off a bye week and could get some key players back from injury.
The public probably won’t see it that way, though. Palm is expecting most of the money to be on the 49ers this week, which is understandable because they have had the Cowboys’ number over the years.
Enticing Bet: Chiefs (-10) at Raiders
Remember when the Raiders had fun at training camp after a fan brought a Kermit The Frog puppet that resembled Mahomes? Well, the Chiefs probably haven’t forgotten.
Expect the Chiefs to be petty and light up the scoreboard even if the game is out of hand midway through the fourth quarter. This could be the game where the Chiefs break out of their offensive funk, especially after trading for wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. I wouldn’t be too worried about a backdoor cover here for the Raiders.
Moneyline Dog: Colts (+180) at Texans
Many are down on Anthony Richardson because his accuracy hasn’t improved and he has failed to push the ball downfield. But Richardson did have his best game of the season in the Week 1 shootout against the Texans. In a week with many heavy favorites, the Colts could be a good play on the moneyline.
Not So Risky: Chargers (-7) vs. Saints
The Chargers could have a get-right game against the fast-fading Saints, who are expected to start rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler again. Rattler had no answers for the Broncos’ defense the last time we saw the Saints. You could argue that the Chargers’ defense is better than the Broncos’ unit. It could be another long day for the 2024 fifth-round pick.
Stay Away: Bengals (-2) vs. Eagles
Jalen Hurts has struggled with downfield accuracy, but maybe he improves in that area against the Bengals’ sluggish secondary. But if this game turns into a shootout, then that might favor Joe Burrow & Co. There are too many unknowns here with two offenses that haven’t had much consistency this season.
Parlay: Commanders (+3) vs. Bears; Packers (-4) at Jaguars; Cardinals (+3.5) at Dolphins
The Cardinals could be another intriguing moneyline dog for Week 8. Yes, Tua Tagovailoa could be back for the Dolphins, but Miami’s offensive line might be one of the worst in the NFL.
“Tua is the big uncertainty there,” Palm says. “I wouldn’t be surprised if this line came down and you started seeing a little more Cardinals love here. That Miami offensive line is just not good. Every quarterback they put back there, including Tua, has really gotten the crap knocked out of them, so they got issues there. If Tua doesn’t play, what’s the solution? And then you would think the Cardinals have a very good chance to win the game.”
Survivor Pool: Lions (-600) vs. Titans
If you’ve gotten this far that means you avoided all the upsets that occurred during the first five weeks of the season. You’ve earned the right to pick a few heavy favorites. Take the Lions here and feel confident about it. The schedule gets tougher for the Lions after this week, so pick them while you can.
Best Over/Under Total: Panthers-Broncos (under 41.5, -110)
The over has been hitting pretty well for me lately, but it’s time to change it up. I’m expecting the Broncos to handle business by covering the 10 points, but they’ll do it in a 24–14 game to get the under here.
